The Irish bookmaker claims that in the past seven days more than 100 bets have been placed on Monarch, shortening the airline's odds from 50/1 to 4/1 to be the next airline to go bankrupt

A Paddy Power spokesman said "Almost 8 out of every 10 bets placed over the last week have been on Monarch. It's following a similar pattern to XL Airways last year."

Monarch has reacted angrily to the claim, suggesting it is a promotion stunt by the bookmakers, which admits it is "famous for its mischievous and sometimes irreverent promotional campaigns". A spokesman issued this statement: "Monarch is the UK’s oldest airline still operating under its original brand name and will enter into its 42nd year of flying in 2010. The airline is privately owned by wealthy shareholders and has accumulated substantial assets in its balance sheet over its 41 years of profitable trading.

"Monarch is one of the UK’s leading low cost airlines and is the airline of choice for independent tour operators in the UK. It has recently launched a series of new routes to Turkey for Summer 2010 and has invested close to $1bn USD in a fleet of six Boeing 787 Dreamliners. It will be the second UK airline to take delivery of these aircraft. Monarch is currently 2% ahead on scheduled load factors for December 2009 compared to the same month last year, with forward bookings into 2010 ahead of forecasts."

The airline offers both charter and schedule flights, and serves more than 100 destinations from the UK with a fleet of 100 aircraft. It carriers around 7 million passengers a year.

The bookmaker's predictions are, of course, purely speculative and not based on any other indicators.
Passengers who have bookings to fly with Monarch over the coming months would be refunded or offered alternative flights in the event of bankruptcy as long as their flight booking is part of a package or is Atol-protected.

Customers who buy scheduled flights directly from an airline which then goes bankrupt, must appeal to their travel insurer or credit card provider for a refund in the event of airline bankruptcy.
Paddy Power started taking bets on airline bankruptcies in September 2008. As soon as betting opened, odds on XL Airways shortened from around 4/1 to near evens following bets from around 200 punters, before betting was suspended and the carrier announced bankruptcy in September 2008. The bookmakers paid out £15,000.

Current joint second favourite to go bust are Polish carrier Wizz Air and the Finnish flag carrier Finnair, at 11/2. These are followed by Malev at 13/2 and Aer Arann at 9/1.

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